An Improving Economy: Real World Indicators
By: Keith
Okay, the economy may still be in the dumps, but at least there are some real signs that people at least feel better about their economic forecast than they did at this time last year. Forbes Magazine reported this month on statements made by 5 billionaires who are leaders in their respective industries. Some industries are seeing tepid improvements, and others are still suffering; the economy is not back on track, but it seems things are not as bad as they were. While it’s hardly scientific to say the entire economy is on the up because people are getting more haircuts, it is nevertheless indicative of an improved overall mood. Can a real turn around be far behind?
John Paul Dejoria (John Paul Mitchell):
When the economy is bad people don’t cut their hair. In fact, during this recession the average time between cuts went from 3 weeks to 6 weeks. Dejoria says people have returned to their pre-collapse 3 week rhythm.
John Catsimatidis (Supermarkets, Oil, Real Estate):
The organic food slump has still not improved much. Less money means more caution when it comes to grocery shopping. Obviously a good way to save money is to stop buying organic. Catsimatidis says that purchases of organic milk and eggs are still down 15% from pre-recession levels.
Mario Moretti Polegato (Geox Footwear):
People always need shoes. The question is how long can one prolong the purchase, and how well do discount brands do while their high end cousins suffer. In the case of Geox Mr. Polegato reports a 10% increase in his stores’ traffic over last year. But, interestingly, people are spending longer making decisions. Before the recession customers spent an average of 5 minutes looking at shoes before deciding. Now, despite improved business, they are taking 20 minutes browsing before making a purchase. Did you know that sort of thing gets tracked? I didn’t.
Robert Rich Jr. (Rich Foods):
Rich thinks people are becoming more indulgent these days. He’s reporting a 10% increase in sales to restaurants and caterers from last year. Even better news though is that there is a 15% rise in dessert sales. Dessert eating is pure indulgence and a clear sign that people are feeling better.
Phillip Ruffin (Treasure Island Casino):
Mr. Ruffin still sees rough times for gambling. Revenues at Treasure Island will probably be down 10% from last year, and those who are still gambling are betting less. He continues to say that Treasure Island’s newest show, Mystère, by Cirque du Soleil, has been discounted 25% to $82 per ticket.
I definitely know what it’s like to go without a haircut. I was a member of the every three weeks crowd for a long time. Now, you should see me, I just had a trim after going 4 months without. I don’t gamble. Thus, I don’t keep up on what’s going on in Vegas or that industry. Still, it’s a bummer that Vegas is struggling. I also don’t wear expensive shoes, sticking mostly to flip flops, Crocs and Vans. Grocery shopping though is one economic indicator I do understand. I used to shop at Whole Foods and buy a lot of organic foods. Now, out of necessity, I’ve found cheaper alternatives at Walmart to some of the same foods I used to buy at Whole Foods (shocker but true). I still prepare healthy meals, but I’m spending half as much. There are all kinds of life adjustments I’ve made as a result of my poor financial standing, groceries, hair, shoes, clothes — everything. What these men say rings true for me.
I see, in these observations, that people are at least feeling differently than they were before the meltdown. Are they secure? No, I don’t think so. They might simply be cautiously poking their heads out, like post apocalyptic survivors, to test the air — finding still toxic air would send them scurrying back underground. Have you observed any real world signs of an improved economy? Do these examples mirror anything you’ve experienced this past year? Does any of this surprise you?
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